AT&T’s Vision of the Future circa 1993

James

June 20, 2008

In 1993, AT&T ran the very slick “You Will” campaign. It consisted of a set of TV spots each containing various visions of how the company’s technology would change our lives in the near future. Although these predictions don’t predate the Internet or the Web, at this time the Internet was mostly in the purview of academia and the first graphical web browser - Mosaic - had only just been released. If you asked a random stranger in the street if they had an email address, you would probably be met with a blank stare.

Let’s have a look at these predictions and see if any have been realized. But first, watch this compilation of the TV spots narrated by man’s man Tom Selleck and his moustache.

Borrowing a book from thousands of miles away

I don’t hear about people electronically borrowing books from libraries, but I do see sites like Scribd and devices like the Kindle gaining popularity. Scribd is a free service that allows you to upload any document and make it available for anyone to download or read online in their web browser. The Kindle is an electronic book reader from Amazon. With a Kindle, you can purchase and download books over a free wireless network made available by Amazon.

Achieved? Kinda.

Cross the country without stopping for directions

Navigation systems can be found for less than $200 at your local big box electronics store. Similar functionality is also becoming a common feature of cell phones. As my wife will attest, I have the worst sense of direction. I don’t disagree. A friend of mine likes to sarcastically call me “The Atlas”. Indeed, I would be lost without the GPS navigator on my Blackberry.

Achieved? Yes.

Send someone a fax from the beach

Faxes? Who sends faxes anymore? In hindsight, I think this prediction had more to do with the availability of network enabled mobile computing devices. Without question, this has been achieved - I am writing this post on my Blackberry at my kids’ ice skating lessons.

Achieved? yes.

Buying concert tickets from a cash machine.

One night in 1984, my mullet and I camped out at the Burlington Mall so I could be at the front of the line for Ronnie James Dio tickets. Ironically, it was the “Last in Line” tour. If only there was a bank machine that sold concert tickets, I could have done something more productive with my time - like sleeping.

I don’t think this was ever specifically invented, but certainly, waiting in lines for hours with no guarantee of getting a ticket are increasingly becoming a thing of the past. Services like TicketMaster, allow you to purchase your tickets over the Internet but also charge usury “convenience” fees. Also, most modern movie theatre chains offer online ticket purchasing and/or provide automated ticket sales kiosks. Achieved? Sorta.

Tuck your baby in from a phone booth

I think what they were hinting at here were video phones. Desktop video phones are not very common, but cell phones equipped with video cameras are gaining popularity. The coolest example of what you can do with your video phone is to stream live to the Internet using Qik.com. You can go there and randomly watch what people are recording and chat with them during the live feed. For an example of how Qik can be used, check out the tech industry interviews broadcast by Robert Scoble.

Achieved? More or less.

Open doors with the sound of your voice

I think they were predicting the ubiquitous voice activated computer. You know, like the one on Star Trek TNG or the one Tony Stark used to help him build the Iron Man suit? Personally, I can’t imagine voice-activated computing becoming popular. Can you imagine how noisy your office would be if everyone was talking to their computers? However, if Microsoft’s Sync takes off, I can’t see why it wouldn’t be integrated into home computers and home automation systems. I think we still need to wait and see if this kind of thing becomes generally adopted.

Achieved? Wait and see.

Carry you medical history in your wallet

Google has recently released Google Health. It is a free service for organizing and storing all your health records. The key feature is the ability to share your medical history with your health professionals. I think this is better than keeping your medical history in your wallet. Stuff in your wallet is more easily lost than something hosted at Google. Of course, there is a trade off here. You put some privacy at risk in return for the efficient and timely access to your health records.

Achieved. Almost.

Attend a meeting in your bare feet

This is similar to the section on Tucking in your baby. Its about being there without being there. Teleconferencing systems do exist. I’ve used a couple. They’re neat, but I’m not sure they added much value when I used them. Nothing beats being face-to-face with people in a room.

Cutting edge - and really creepy - research into new humanlike presence techniques is being done by Hiroshi Ishiguro at Kyoto University. He is studying the suitability of using a tele-operated androids, or geminoids, to project your presence across the globe. His first application of the geminoid technology was to give lectures to his undregrad students. The Gemnoid sat before the students and was remotely operated by Ishiguo - via the Internet - from his home. Watch a geminoid demo on YouTube.

Achieved? Yes.

Watch the movie you wanted to, the minute you wanted to.

On-demand movies have been around for a while now. However, cable companies are now finding competition from companies like Apple and Netflix. You can now rent movies from Apple and watch them  using iTunes, iPod, or AppleTV. Netflix has recently announced the upcoming availability of a set-top box that let’s you rent movies for immediate viewing on your TV.

Achieved? Totally.

Learn special things, from far away places

The Internet has made this possible in spades. The full range of media is now available on the Internet. Text, audio, video and images are are easily accessible without specialized knowledge or equipment. My favourite example of someone using the Internet to its fullest is Joseph Kimojino. Joseph is the head of tourism and anti-animal harassment for the Mara Conservancy in Kenya. He is using wide array of Internet technology to teach people in far away places about the plight of wild animals on the preserve. He uses Twitter for microbloging, posts pictures on Flickr, posts videos on Vimeo, and ties it all together on a blog. Oh, and you can even make a donation from the blog. I urge you to check it out.

Achieved? Yes.

To Sum Up…

It seems most of what we saw in those commercials has been realized in some way. But what was missed? What could not have been predicted?

Most of the technologies depicted in the ads show people accessing professionally published information (e.g. books, movies, medical records, and mapping information). It doesn’t show people creating information. Why isn’t there a prediction of someone composing a best selling novel on a cell phone?

Perhaps there was no way to predict how normal folks, like you and me, would be contributing to the mass of freely available information. In 1993, could anyone have predicted how something like Wikipedia could become so indispensible or that the bloggers would have newspapers scrambling for ways to stay relevant? If you know of such a prediction, please let me know.

If AT&T were making thise commercials today, I wonder how they would look? Perhaps that is another blog post.

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